Indonesia has undergone a transformation process from an agricultural based country into an industrialized country. The World Bank classified Indonesia into a transforming country since agriculture is no longer a major source of growth (World Bank, 2008). On the other hand, Indonesia is a country rich of natural resource including in the agriculture sector and the agricultural employment is still high although with declining trend.

Besides the contribution to the GDP and employment, agriculture sector is also an important sector in acquiring foreign currency through export activities. One of the industries which contribute to acquiring foreign currency is the palm oil industry.

The objective of developing the palm oil industry is to increase the welfare of the people involved in the industry especially the rural population. But is the development of palm industry increases the welfare of rural population?Since 70 percent of Indonesia's palm oil is exported, discussing the development of palm oil industry is not complete without discussing palm oil export competitiveness. The main concern is to how to achieve export competitiveness and what measures have been taken to increase the export competitiveness.

This research has two main objectives and several specific objectives. The first main objective is to analyze the contribution of palm oil industry on the Indonesian economy. Meanwhile the specific objective is to analyze the linkage of the palm oil industry with the other sectors of the economy and the effect of the palm oil industry on the factor of production and households.

The second objective is to analyze the export competitiveness of Indonesia's palm oil product. Furthermore, the specific objective is to analyze the effect of export tax on crude palm oil (CPO) competitiveness compare with Malaysia, analyze the source of Indonesia's palm oil product competitiveness and lastly, analyze the market position of Indonesia's palm oil in three markets.

This dissertation is consists of seven chapters, the first chapter is the introduction followed by a brief overview regarding the palm oil industry in Indonesia. The next four chapters are the main content of the dissertation, the third chapter discuss the contribution of palm oil industry on the Indonesian economy, followed by the determinants of crude palm oil (CPO) export competitiveness. The fifth chapter discusses about the export competitiveness of Indonesia's palm oil product and the sixth chapter discusses about the market position of Indonesia's palm oil in three selected countries. Lastly, conclusion and policy recommendations are presented.

The third chapter analyzed the contribution of the palm oil industry in Indonesia employing the input output and social accounting matrix (SAM) analysis. The industry consists of two sectors, the oil palm sector and the animal and vegetable oil processing sector. The contribution is divided into two types, first the contribution on the economy itself and the second the impact on factor of production and households. The result shows that the animal and vegetable oil processing sector contributes more to the economy in output and value added. Moreover, the animal and vegetable oil processing sector is more linked to the other sectors compare to the palm oil sector. On the other hand, the oil palm sector has more contribution on the employment aspect.

On the impact on the factor of production and households, the result indicates that the oil palm sector mainly benefited the rural agricultural labor and urban non-agricultural labor since the sector is link to the financial sector. Meanwhile, the development of the animal and vegetable oil sector will benefit the rural agricultural and non-agricultural labor since the plant location mainly located in the rural area and it has link with the palm oil sector. For the impact on households, the development of both sectors will have the biggest impact on the agriculture landowner households.

The next chapter is regarding the determinants of CPO export competitiveness. The objective of this chapter is to compare palm oil industry in Indonesia and Malaysia and to analyze the determinants of Indonesia's CPO export competitiveness compare with Malaysia, the main competitor. An export ratio equation between Indonesia and Malaysia is constructed using monthly data. The dependent variable is CPO export of both countries, meanwhile the independent variables includes price ratio, export tax difference, refined palm oil export ratio and exchange rate ratio. The result shows all of the independent variables affected the CPO export competitiveness.

The fifth chapter is regarding Indonesia's palm oil product export competitiveness. This chapter analyzes the export competitiveness of Indonesia's palm oil product compared to Malaysia in three regions: Asia, Africa and Europe. Two palm oil products are analyzed, crude palm oil (CPO) and refined palm oil. Market share is utilized as the measurement of competitiveness. The result indicates that Indonesia's palm oil export has increased significantly over the period of 1999-2001 and 2005-2007.. The reason for the increase is the increase in demand and Indonesia's palm oil product has gain export competitiveness compared to Malaysia's product.

The next chapter regards the market position of Indonesia's palm oil in three selected countries. The objective of this chapter is to analyze the competition between palm oil with its substitute and between Indonesia's and Malaysia's palm oil in three selected countries, which is China, India and Netherlands. Two stage import demand is constructed using the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach and almost ideal system (AIDS). The result indicates that habit persistence, world palm oil and substitute price are the major determinants of palm oil import in China and Netherlands. Substitute price has the largest effect on the palm oil import in these two countries. Meanwhile in India domestic price and trade liberalization are the main determinants. Palm oil price is an important factor in determining palm oil demand in these three countries. In addition, Indonesia's palm oil is more elastic in China and India. In China, both countries palm oil is complementing each other meanwhile in Netherlands they are competing.

From this research it can be concluded that the development of palm oil industry, which include the on-farm, CPO and refined palm oil industry, will have a huge effect on the Indonesian economy. Since almost 70 percent of the palm oil product is exported, increasing palm oil export competitiveness will be an important factor in the development of Indonesia's palm oil industry.

In developing the palm oil industry, there are two approaches that can be taken; domestic and foreign. The domestic approach includes domestic policy which will have affects the domestic palm oil industry. Meanwhile the foreign approach includes policy to increase Indonesia's competitiveness.

On the domestic policy, there are four main objectives to focus on. First, to implement policy that can attract business people to invest in the refined palm oil industry which has more value added rather than only investing in on-farm or until crushing FFB into CPO. Second, the policies imposed must be toward more participation of farmers in the on-farm activities of oil palm plantation as landowner not as labor. Based on this research, the largest beneficiary of the palm oil industry is the landowner in rural areas. Lastly, the government must have a clear road map on the palm oil industry. The road map must involve all the stakeholders of the palm oil industry. Lastly, specialization and further cooperation among palm oil producers must be promoted.

Concerning the policy for increasing export competitiveness, there are four activities that can be implemented. First, Indonesia's palm oil must increase its promotion activities in the international market. Second, Indonesian government and private sectors must coordinate its action in order to increase Indonesia's palm oil export. Third, Indonesia and Malaysia as the major producer and exporter of palm oil must cooperate with each other. The cooperation can be in the form of promotion, price stabilization scheme and investment. Fourth, demand for each countries must be identify for references by the palm oil producers.

The domestic and foreign approach policies must be implemented simultaneously since both sectors are linked. In order to develop domestic palm oil industry, demand from international market is essential. Increasing export competitiveness will not be achieved without the well established domestic palm oil industry. Hopefully in the future, the Indonesian people especially the rural population will benefit more with the developed palm oil industry

本研究の目的は、インドネシア経済においてパーム油産業が果たす役割を、国内他産業とのリンケージおよび輸出市場に焦点を当てて分析することである。パーム油はインドネシアの主要な輸出品の一つであり、インドネシアの外貨獲得に貢献するだけでなく、搾油、精製のプロセスを通じて広くインドネシア経済に波及効果をもたらしている。

本研究は、研究目的を述べた第1章と結論および政策的含意を記した第7章を除けば、インドネシアのパーム油産業の国内経済における役割を論じた2つの章と、海外市場に焦点を当ててインドネシアのパーム油の競争力を分析した3つの章で構成される。まず、第1章で本研究の目的とその背景を述べ、論文の構成を概説し、第2章ではインドネシアにおけるパーム油産業の位置づけを、生産、消費、輸出、および市場構造の面から詳説し、さらには輸出税を中心とした政策の変化とその影響を詳しく論じている。

第3章でパーム油産業の国内経済に対する波及効果を、投入産出行列および社会会計行列(SAM)を用いて分析している。パーム油産業はオイルパーム生産部門と油脂製造部門から成り、それぞれの部門の経済全体に対する貢献は、生産量および付加価値では油脂製造部門の方がオイルパーム生産部門より大きく、また他の部門との連関性も高いが、雇用に関してはオイルパーム生産部門の貢献の方が大きいことが明らかにされた。

生産要素として労働が生み出す付加価値への影響では、オイルパーム生産部門は農村労働に寄与することは当然であるが、金融部門との連関を通じて非農業労働にも寄与していることが解明された。一方、油脂製造部門は主に農村地域に位置していることおよびオイルバーム生産部門と密接に関わっていることから、非農業労働だけでなく農業労働にも寄与していることが明らかにされた。また、家計への影響では農地所有者の家計への寄与が最大であった。

第4章ではパーム原油の輸出競争力の決定要因の分析を行っている。特に、インドネシアと並んで世界の2大輸出国であるマレーシアとの相対輸出量関数を推定して、輸出競争力を検討している。輸出競争力を説明する変数は相対輸出価格、相対輸出税水準、精製パーム油相対価格および相対実質為替レートである。いずれの変数も輸出競争力を統計的に有意に説明しており、なかでも相対実質為替レートの変化に対して輸出競争力が最も大きな影響を受けることが明らかとなった。また、輸出税を課す政策はインドネシアの輸出競争力を殺ぐ結果となることが数量的に示された。

第5章では別の角度からインドネシアのパーム油製品の輸出競争力が考察されている。すなわち、アジア、アフリカ、欧州の各地域におけるインドネシアのパーム油製品(パーム原油および精製パーム油)の輸出量の変化を、各地域から主要な輸出相手国をとりあげてマレーシアとの比較で検討している。用いられた手法は輸出量の変化を市場の拡大と競争力(市場シェア)の変化に分解するCMSA分析である。その結果、1999-2001年から2005-2007年にかけて多くの地域・国でインドネシアの輸出が増加したが、その要因は競争力の強化によるものであることが解明された。

第6章ではさらに、中国、インド、オランダ市場に着目し、これらの市場におけるパーム油の輸入需要構造をAIDSと呼ばれる需要体系モデルを用いて推定し、その推定結果を通じ、インドネシアのパーム油の需要面からの競争力を検証している。主要な結果のひとつは、インドネシアのパーム油に対する需要の価格弾力性が中国とインドにおいてマレーシアより大きいことが示されたことであり、これはコストダウンにより輸出価格を低下されることができれば、これらの市場でさらに成長が見込まれることを意味する。

第7章ではこれらの分析を通じて得られた結論と、インドネシアのパーム油産業のさらなる発展のための政策提言がなされている。政策提言は国内対策と対外政策に分けられ、国内対策では付加価値の高いパーム油精製部門への投資の拡大、農民が農場の現場においてパーム油産業に関わる機会の増大などの提言がなされている。また、対外政策では、輸出競争力向上のために輸出促進活動を推進すること、政府と民間業者の連携を強化すること、価格安定や投資においてマレーシアとの協調を図ること、などが提案されている。

以上のように、本研究はインドネシア経済におけるパーム油産業の役割を国内経済および輸出市場の両面にわたり包括的に分析し、数量的にパーム油産業の重要性を明らかにしており、優れた研究である。特に世界のパーム油市場でライバル輸出国であるマレーシアとの競争力比較の分析は、他の商品の輸出市場分析にも応用できる手法を提供している。また、パーム油産業という特定の一次産業がインドネシア経済全体に果たす役割の大きさを具体的に示したことは、経済発展における一次産業の重要性を再認識させ、政策的にも重点化を図るべきとの提言に説得力を持たせている。さらには、今後の経済発展にむけてどのような輸出戦略が望ましいのかを政策的に検討している。このように本研究は学術上かつ応用上の価値が高く、よって審査委員一同は本論文が博士(農学)の学位を授与するにふさわしいと判断した。