Introduction

The 50 years of public housing supply was halted in 1998, all house are to be supplied since then by private sector, signifying a paradigm shift of China housing system. On the other hand, with huge amount of population, decades-old housing distress, and relatively strong economy, Shanghai has immense demands for housing consumption, and thus, the housing reform together with economy growth leads directly to housing market boom, and Shanghai has witnessed unprecedented sharp market increase during 1998-2005.

Development shock gives rise to huge land occupation and redevelopment and substantial urban building increase. The total scale, quality, price and location of development all alter the central city environment and achieve suburban growth. Redevelopment enforces relocation of the medium-low income from central city, whereas the disparity of housing price, size and location induces voluntary displacement of different incomes. Shanghai was experiencing enormous population and space changes.

Since housing development works as catalyst to such changes, housing total price, housing size, development amount and grade are employed to infer population shift, while land occupation, lot size, FAR, and housing unit price are taken to examine urban space change. The effects of both shifts are combined to analyze their impact on urban Shanghai.

In addition, public and private land grant supply a great many development plots, large scaled urban construction aimed to global standing propels urban redevelopment, and urban planning shapes types, volume and distribution of development. Thereby, roles of land grant manner, redevelopment, and development control are also explored in the shifts of population, land and environment. Finally, polices on housing, land, and urban planning are reviewed altogether.

Purpose

The study has been started in a bid to infer the flow of home-buying population and the physical urban Shanghai changes, and combine the changes of population and urban space to identify the urban growth trend of major regions of Shanghai by comparing with master plan goals.

To identify the effects of development on population and space, firstly it is necessary to identify what happened to the development itself, then based on the development outcomes, to identify what happed to population and space? Further, what is the relationship between those changes? Whether those changes are consistent with master plan? What the comprehensive consequence, in long or short term, on urban Shanghai growth? Moreover, to prevent and address similar issues in future, it is also imperative to make clear what are the causes of those development changes, what are the relevance between policies and planning with respect to those causes, how to improve accordingly policies of housing, land and urban planning?

Summary of Chapters

Chapter 1 makes an introduction to the background of housing market in Shanghai, including the goals of economy and urban growth, population and land supply, institutional shifts of economy and politics, the growth of industry, urban network and transit, the growth of housing industry and redevelopment. The major issues in the development, population and space of Shanghai are described, such as high housing price, land supply limits, crowding of space and population. The practical and academic value of the study is argued. The major questions and objectives are put forward. The housing dealt with in the dissertation is defined, regions are subdivided, and the major indicators and their study methodology are presented.

Chapter 2 reviews several theories of demography and urban planning on population and development. It starts with review of theories on residential mobility and suburbanization, and their induced social space shifts in western cities. Counterparts of urban China and Shanghai on population are summarized. Then theories of developments' spatial effect with respect to economy, assessment,and locations are presented. Finally, the limitations of western theories and the distinctions of urban China and Shanghai are approached.

Chapter 3 is a brief review of China housing reform, including establishment, evolution, reform, abolishment as well as their effects of China public housing system in national level and Shanghai municipal level, emphasis is put on the policy implication and market impacts by the halt of public housing system in 1998 and privatization efforts of public housing proceeding at the same time. The mechanism is explored of housing reform impacts on population and space, and its consequences are estimated theoretically.

Chapter 4 is the analysis of housing market structure. It deals with Shanghai housing market structure and its characteristics first, market is divided into 3 tiers of new housings sale, exit housing sale, housing lease, and housing type compositions of each are presented. Growths of the 3 market are analyzed and divided into 3 periods by that of new housing market. The growths of the 3 market are compared, their correlations are summarized. Mechanisms and roles of the 3 markets on the shifts of population and space in shanghai are estimated.

Chapter 5 is an analysis of population amount shift. It expounds firstly the relation between residential mobility and housing development, demonstrating the feasibility of examination of population by virtue of housing. Shanghai's population goals are stated and evaluated. Factors concerning changes of population amount and its space distribution are briefly discussed theoretically, with concentration on the relation between development and population quantity variation. Population amount and density of the whole Shanghai and each region are studied and compared, the relevant roles of the 3 markets are analyzed in terms of transfer amount and price, and population shifts tendency is extracted that is compared with population goals to evaluate the roles of development.

Chapter 6 works on the population distribution shift. It examines first housing stock structure, then population differentiation by the spatial changes of housing price and sizes over the 3 periods. The high end housing supply is deduced by FAR, and so does the degree of gentrification by housing type. The supply balance among various housing grades is analyzed by price, amount, and case of Pudong. In the end, the mode, mechanism of population differentiation is concluded.

Chapter 7 sums up the implications and effects of population shift in Shanghai. It begins with the analysis of effects of population suburbanization, and then puts forward measures for emerging problems. The residential differentiation and its effects of all incomes are discussed, its necessity is validated and consequence is compared with that of western cities, so the overall effects are summed up and the measure are proposed in the end.

Chapter 8 examines the effects on the space of Shanghai. It makes analysis of land use amount and land price during the 3 periods, Then of the changes of lot size and FAR of the TAL development, also changes of FAR of Non-TAL development, and point out the difference effect of land grant manners. Finally by virtue of unit housing price as well as cost changes development quality or that of cityscape is studied. All those changes are compared with that of housing price to identify the roles and their mechanism on land and space.

Chapter 9 examines the effects of redevelopment, on market, population and space. It begins with theoretical analysis of the status, characteristics and effects of redevelopment in urban construction. Then, effects on population and housing demand are derived by comparing the household amount before and after redevelopment. Finally, it examines the FAR change tendency by property floor area changes before and after redevelopment.

Chapter 10 is case study, testing forgoing conclusions on the effects of developments on population and space by the analysis and comparison of 4 cases with respect to their population, space, housing price, grade and location, development process and marketing. The population and space shift of the districts in which the cases are located are also estimated and each compared with its district planning. The strategies of developers with various strength and background during the 3 periods are summarized. The effects of housing market on price, sale, housing size, FAR and population is explored. Finally the effects of development control and the issues to be addressed are approached based on the cases.

Chapter 11 is a theoretical discussion about the identified results above and solution strategies. It consists of two sections, the first on the comprehensive effects of the shift of population and space; the second on the planning strategies for overheat development. The first section analyses first the relation of population, space and urban growth, then examines the individual and combined roles of population and space on urban growth taking economy growth as the major goal and indicator for urban growth, the mechanism and effects of residential differentiation on downtown and suburb in terms of population and space. The second section identifies the reason of inconsistency between market and planning, evaluates the standing of planning among all development control devices, and proposes strategies from land supply and space administration aimed at housing price control, economy growth, farm land conservation, and urban space improvement.

Chapter 12 is the conclusion and recommendation. It summarizes the development-resulted population amount change, flow and distributor of different income, development scale, housing price structure, development quality and their spatial changes, the effect and significance of redevelopment, the combined effect of such population and space change are reviewed in comparison with Master Plan, assessment of housing reform and development are made. On the conclusion basis, recommendations are proposed on market regulation, rational mix residence, and equilibrium of town system. Finally, the particularity and methodology limitations are specified and future research are conceived.

Conclusions

Economically, the housing reform is quite successful beyond doubt. However, that the sudden full-scale halt of public housing supply coincides with public housing privatization is the foremost reason for housing market frenzy in short period.

Housing reforms turn out the major factor driving rapid market growth. The 3 markets differ in their roles on population distribution and space growth, but the new housing market is the only decisive factor.

The population amount shifts turns out conforming to the Master Plan while the residential differentiation does not. The population mobility are driven by housing development and percolated by many market and development factors, notably housing price, results in further residential differentiation, in the form of the gentrification in certain areas and suburbanization of the middle-and-below incomes.

Development boom results in unsustainable farm land conversion, spatial effect induced is found not completely consistent with the Master Plan, while redevelopment cause the inconsistency between the shifts of space and population with respect to the Master Plan. Farm land is depleting rapidly. Lot size of TAL development gets increasing larger which leads to its overall FAR decline. Non-TAL developments generally concentrated in central city at much high FAR. Redevelopment has greatly improved space of urban Shanghai but at the cost of higher building density in the central city and graver housing demand. Development has upgraded cityscape quality in all regions but with various degrees.

Viewed generally, the achievements of housing development in Shanghai have far-reaching and profound significances on urban Shanghai growth, whereas the issues have limited effects, and some are likely to be addressed in future. In conclusion, the housing development of Shanghai has more merits over demerits, largely facilitates the realization of the Master Plan, and therefore will greatly promote urban Shanghai growth.

本研究は、1998年以降に中華人民共和国において行なわれた住宅政策における市場開放が、都市空間・社会の形成に与えた影響を、上海市を事例としてとりあげ、分析した研究である。中国ではそれまでの国家による直接的な住宅供給から民間事業者による供給に転換し、そのことが既成市街地における都市再開発や郊外における新規開発を促進し、都市の人口配置や空間変容にも大きな影響を与えた。

本研究では、まず第一章において、中国における住宅政策の変遷過程について、特に1990年以降について概説し、また事例として取り上げる上海市の位置づけを明確にする為に住宅政策、都市政策、都市整備の変遷について整理を行った。その上で、研究の目的をのべ、また本研究の意義を、都市計画・都市開発における実務、政策実行、学術の各視点から述べている。また、研究対象期間、フレーム、方法を整理している。

また、第二章においては、本研究に関連する研究の方法や理論について整理を行っている。特に、開発が及ぼす空間的影響を経済的側面と物的環境的側面、そして都市内での立地の側面について焦点をあてて整理を行っている。

第三章では、第一章で概説した住宅政策改革について、国家レベルと上海市レベルについてより詳細に説明を加えており、特に1998年の住宅政策改革で行なわれた公営住宅供給の停止と民間企業による供給の導入政策に着目し、当該住宅政策改革について、空間や人口配置等に関する影響について検討する視点を整理している。

第四章以降第十章までは、上海市を対象として、住宅政策改革のもたらした空間的影響について検討している。

第四章では、住宅供給の形態・マーケットを、新規住宅販売、中住宅販売、リースの3つのタイプに類型し、1998年に行われた住宅政策改革以降のそれぞれのマーケットの成長を把握した。第五章では、住宅政策の改革後の住宅供給によって、上海市内の人口配置・密度構成がどのように変化したのか検証している。第六章では、住宅のグレード別の供給実態を分析した。そして、これらの結果の含意について第七章で論述している。

第八章では、住宅のグレード・価格が上海市の中で空間的にどのように変化したのか把握している。第九章では、再開発の影響について、住宅のグレードの変化、密度・人口の変化から整理している。第十章は、4つの開発事例をとりあげ、ケーススタディを行ない、密度や人口の増加、住宅価格の変化といった観点から地区への影響を分析している。

これらの分析結果をふまえて、第十一章では、住宅政策改革による上海市における空間的な変容状況をまとめ、郊外と都心部の2極化の問題を指摘した。また、都市計画や都市成長戦略が、住宅供給をコントロールできていない理由を整理し、住宅価格のコントロール、経済成長、農地の保全、既成市街地の環境改善と行った多様な目標に資するように、住宅開発を誘導する必要性を指摘した。第十二章は、以上から、上海市の都市政策を居住者の所得階層のミックスや平等性の観点から組み立て直すことを提案している。

審査会においては、住宅政策改革が都市空間の形成に与えた影響を明らかにした点が高く評価された。また、分析にやや不十分な点もあるが、統計情報や地理・空間情報、そして開発に関する公的資料が入手しにくい中国において、各種資料を組み合わせて、空間的変容を明らかにし、中国の大都市政策に有益な示唆を得ている点が評価された。

よって本論文は博士(工学)の学位請求論文として合格と認められる。